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Iraq's provincial elections show that the ground is shifting underneath the country's fledgling post-Saddam order. The grip on power exercised by pro-federalist groups - the Kurdish parties and the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq ISCI - over the past six years is being loosened by an ad hoc coalition of forces that favour a strengthening of the central state.
Their standard bearer is Nouri al Maliki, the prime minister, whose appointment in resulted from a compromise when neither ISCI nor its Sadrist rivals were able to impose their own as head of government and whose convincing showing in the provincial polls has given the anti-federalists new momentum. Mr Maliki won in part because of a mixture of nationalist rhetoric and military moves that angered the Kurds as much as it pleased many ordinary Arab Iraqis.
With parliamentary elections on the horizon within a year, Mr Maliki's recipe of confronting the federalists will produce further tensions with the Kurds, who have enjoyed a rare period of peace at home and great influence in Baghdad. In the past year Mr Maliki launched a campaign to roll back Kurdish power - constitutional, institutional and territorial. In August he sent government forces into areas in the Diyala governorate claimed by the Kurds - disputed territories, according to the constitution, many of which contain oil or gas.
They pushed Kurdish security agencies out of three sub-districts then reached a compromise over Khanaqin, a preponderantly Kurdish district town. Local police, not the Iraqi army or Kurdish regional forces, were placed in charge, both sides knowing full well that the local police consist mainly of Kurds. Kurdish leaders seethed, fearing that the Khanaqin operation would be a prelude for similar manoeuvres in Kirkuk - the ultimate prize, given its vast riches in oil and gas.
Soon Mr Maliki began rotating Kurdish military officers out of the north, where their presence in army units had helped Kurdish efforts to bring disputed areas into the Kurdistan region. Potentially facing charges of mutiny, the Kurds yielded, but their rage continued to build. Then matters burst into the open with a public spat between Mr Maliki and the president of the Kurdistan region, Masoud Barzani, over the federalism issue and amendments to the constitution.